To develop models and perform productivity calculations for different groups of grape varieties for 2050

What priority area of ​​science and technology does it correspond to: fundamental scientific research on the most important problems of developing scientific, technical, socio-economic, socio-political, human potential to ensure Ukraine’s competitiveness in the world and sustainable development of society and the state.

Research: targeted fundamental.

Prospect for further execution: to be continued as a target fundamental.

Research level: no analogues in Ukraine.

Patent: no.

What additional actions require further research: continuation of research, funding.

Brief description, advantages, further prospects for application.

The purpose of the stage was to study the agro-climatic resources for the formation of the productivity of grape varieties of medium and late ripening with high frost resistance due to climate change by 2050.

The studies were carried out using the methods of agroclimatic calculations, dynamic modeling of the formation of grape productivity according to the one developed at the NSC “IVIV named after V.I. V.E. Tairova” model and methods for classifying the types of agro-climatic resources.

The trends in grape productivity were determined for three periods: the base or current period (according to long-term average data for 1986–2005) and 2 climatic periods (2011–2030 and 2031–2050) according to common scenarios and A2, which envisage correspondingly rapid economic growth, with rates peaking in a century, followed by a decline, and slow and fragmented technological and economic growth. Climatic indicators are calculated according to the developed at the Institute of Meteorology. Max Planck in Germany model REMO.

Calculations were made of such indicators of grape productivity as leaf area, photosynthetic potential, grape biomass growth and grape yield for grape varieties. Ukraine.

The deterioration of agro-climatic conditions for the formation of grape productivity in the traditional viticulture zone of Ukraine and the improvement of conditions in the Northern Steppe subzone and Forest-Steppe have been established, which causes a possible shift in the border of viticulture to the northern and eastern regions of the country for grapes of high frost resistance.

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