Development of scientific and methodological bases for assessing the impact on the marine environment of objects and types of marine economic activities

Which priority area of ​​science and technology corresponds to: Earth science.

Research: applied.

The prospect of further implementation: will be as applied.

Research level: no analogues in Ukraine.

Patent: no.

What additional actions require further research: none.

Brief description, advantages, further prospects for application.

The problems of assessing the scale of threats that arise in the field of marine nature management lie in the lack of a conceptual understanding of the nature of environmental risks and how to assess them. For marine ecosystems that provide various environmental services, it is most appropriate to carry out an environmental risk assessment by considering the likelihood of loss of stability of the marine ecosystem in conjunction with the damage associated with the deterioration/destruction of ecosystem services of marine ecosystems.

The development of a methodology for assessing the environmental risks of maritime activities is based on a sectoral systematic approach focused on the disclosure and identification of a variety of relationships in complex dynamic systems. The developed methodology for assessing environmental risks includes taking into account the probabilities of loss of stability and critical states of biotic and abiotic components of the marine environment, as well as the amount of damage caused by the negative impact of marine economic activity on marine ecosystem services.

To assess the probability of loss of ecosystem stability, a point-index approach was used, the essence of which is to form a matrix of standard states that determine the levels of stability of marine ecosystems, followed by projecting the results of field observations into the space of the first principal components of the matrix of standards. The assessment of the probability of loss of stability of the marine ecosystem is based on the analysis of the trajectories of parametric phase portraits, where the coordinates of the projections of the complex of centered and normalized monitoring data in the space of independent coordinates of the matrix standards are used as state coordinates.

For the practical implementation of the above methodology, it is necessary to assess the cost of marine ecosystems in Ukraine, assess the likelihood of loss of ecosystem stability, their critical states and the amount of damage caused by marine activities. The main element of the risk assessment, monitoring system and assessment of the sustainability of marine ecosystems is the environmental monitoring of the marine waters of Ukraine.

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