Computer technology for quantitative integral assessment and forecasting of the state of economic security of the state

Purpose. To assess and forecast the state of economic security at the macroeconomic, sectoral or regional levels to support effective management decisions in this area.

Specifications. The technology is implemented based on the integration of common software products Microsoft Excel and StatSoft Statistica in the OS Windows environment, which ensures its effective use by authorities making management decisions.

Application area. Economic security, technology can be adapted for use in the areas of energy and environmental security. Government, ministries, departments of Ukraine

Advantages. There are no similar technologies in Ukraine; the advantage in relation to foreign ones is the objective determination of the weighting coefficients of primary economic indicators in the integral index and the use of the widespread Microsoft Excel system.

Technical and economic effect. The developed information technology allows management decision makers in government bodies (government, ministries, departments) to monitor, quantify and predict integral indices of the state of economic security of the state by industry and throughout the country over time.

Description. A computer technology for integral assessment and forecasting of the functioning efficiency of complex economic systems has been developed, characterized by the construction of an integral aggregated index of the state of such systems based on a new method of fuzzy nonlinear normalization of primary economic indicators and index forecasting based on forecasts of these indicators using current statistical data. This information technology is adapted and used to support the adoption of effective management decisions in the field of economic security based on statistical data.

More details…